Morgan Stanley report uses questionable methodology to claim Google has surpassed Yandex in Russia

According to a report released last week by Morgan Stanley, Russian mobile and web users are increasingly favoring Google over local search engine Yandex. Referring to polls taken between 2012 and 2014, Morgan Stanley analysts assert that the US search engine overtook Yandex in popularity in 2014.

In December, according to the surveys, there were more Google users (83% of respondents) than Yandex users (79%) among Russian desktop device users. Google also asserted its superiority in the mobile field (87% and 78%, respectively).

Google’s advantage is likely due to Android’s predominance in Russia, with more than 70% of smartphones running a version of the system, note Morgan Stanley analysts. Their poll was taken twice yearly by 30,000 users, with analysts studying the behavior of 1,500 respondents. No margin of error was given.

Based on different methodologies, data on the respective traffic and market shares of Yandex and Google have not always been convincing and converging exactly. However, it is the very first time a report presents Google as more popular in Russia than Yandex.

In terms of search queries, according to widely accepted data, the Russian company’s estimated market share nears 60% for Yandex compared with less than 30% for Google.

Thus in december 2014, according to Live Internet, Yandex generated 59,7% of all search queries made by Russian users who then left the search page to visit Russian websites.

In terms of audience, no fewer than 53.1 million Internet users of 12 to 64 years of age across Russia viewed Yandex’s search result page in December 2014, compared to 49 million for Google, according to TNS monthly data.

“We cannot deny that Google demonstrates positive dynamics across mobile platforms. TNS data show that Google’s popularity among 12-17 year old users is slightly higher than that of other search engines, while other young user groups confirm the traditional breakdown in favor of Yandex,”  a Yandex spokesman said in an exchange with East-West Digital News.

Yandex also refers to the comScore MMX research, according to which “the average daily user audience of Google Web Search amounted to 28% of the average daily user audience of Yandex Web Search in December 2014” among Russians of six years of age and above.

The methodology used by Morgan Stanley is not transparent, added the Yandex press service — which EWDN also feels in the absence of any response to its inquiries to the US bank.

The divergence between Morgan Stanley’s findings and other industry data might be due to different approaches to the user base. Morgan Stanley seems to have surveyed web users from all over the world, including outside of Russia, clicking through to Russian websites, while it is more relevant to analyze visits made by Russian users only, says Yandex.

Google vs. Yandex: A 14-year battle

Yandex, whose technology was created in the mid-1990s – several years before Google, – established itself as the leader of the online search market in Russia around 2002, leaving its competitors in the dust.

The US giant had launched its Russian-language search engine in 2001, but it opened its first office in Russia and introduced Russian-language morphology-based search capabilities only in 2006. Like most US web giants, Google did not or could not consider Russia as a priority market in its early international development plans. This left Yandex some time to firmly establish itself on the local market.

In the mid-2000s, Google began to assert itself more aggressively in Russia. Yandex, whose market share fell to 51% in 2008, stroke back with radical technological and strategic changes, and progressively regained positions.