There is some justification to anticipate continued dynamic growth in cross-border trade. Our optimistic outlook foresees back-to-back annual growth of around 50% over 2014-2016. This is a moderate expectation compared to those of Russian Post Director Dmitry Strashnov who stated in July 2014: “It is widely expected that in the next few years, the volume of cross-border trade will double every year.”
The estimate seems consistent with, on one hand, growth of around 75% in 2013 and 2014 and, on the other hand, a range of factors that could support this expansion further, especially from the Chinese side. Should this forecast be proved correct, market volume could exceed $13 billion by 2016.
Some factors could slow down annual growth in a pessimistic scenario, from around 70% in 2014, to 30% in 2015, to some 20% by 2016 with a sales volume below $7 billion (which would amount to a half of the 2016 volume under a positive outlook). It must be noted that even this conservative analysis still brings attractive opportunities for retailers in many market segments.
The potential factors driving both a pessmistic and optimistic scenarios are detailed in EWDN’s study.
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